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Student absence worsening at secondary level, analysis shows

Attendance
It is unlikely that schools will see a return to pre-pandemic attendance levels by the end of 2023, an analysis has concluded.
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The biggest improvements in attendance since September have been seen in the youngest primary school cohorts while absence at secondary level continues to rise.

However, the analysis from FFT Datalab (Beynon, 2023) predicts that neither primary nor secondary attendance will return to pre-pandemic levels this term.

It shows that while notable improvements have been seen in absence reduction for most primary year groups when compared to this time last year – especially reception and year 1 – all secondary year groups have worsened.

The analysis is based on data from almost 10,000 schools in England using the FFT Attendance Tracker and it covers the first half of the autumn term 2023, comparing it to the same period in 2022.

It confirms that across the primary phase pupils have missed 4.9% of sessions compared with 5.2% in 2022. All primary year groups have improved except year 6, which has remained constant.

But we are getting closer to pre-pandemic rates at primary level – absence during the same period in 2019 was 4.3%.

At secondary level, meanwhile, 7.9% of sessions have been missed this year – about 0.4% higher than in 2022 and notably higher than 2019 when the figure was 5.6%.

The pattern continues with persistent absence. For pupils missing 10% or more of sessions, primary schools have seen a year-on-year decrease (16.5% to 15.2%) while secondaries have seen an increase (21.6% to 22.1%).

Rates of persistent absence during the first half of term this year are particularly high for disadvantaged pupils (those who have been eligible for free school meals at any point in the last six years). At primary level 23.4% have missed 10% of sessions so far this year, rising to 35% at secondary level.

The analysis states: “At primary, FSM6 pupils were around twice as likely to have missed at least 10%, 20% and 50% of sessions as non-FSM6 pupils. At secondary, they were around twice as likely to have missed at least 10% of sessions, around two and a half times as likely to have missed 20% of sessions, and around three times as likely to have missed at least 50% of sessions.”

A tale of two phases: Percentage of pupils absent during the first autumn half-term in both 2022 and 2023 and split by year group (source: Beynon, 2023)

Persistent problems: Percentage of pupils persistently and severely absent during the first autumn half-term in both 2022 and 2023 (source: Beynon, 2023)

 

The analysis finds that overall primary school absence is highest in the West Midlands (5.2%) and lowest in the South East (4.5%). Year-on-year, it has decreased in all regions except the North East where it has remained constant.

At secondary level, absence has increased in all regions apart from London where it has remained constant. The highest absence rates continue to be found in the North East (around 8.5%).

The analysis concludes: “Rates of absence are slightly lower so far this year than last at primary, and slightly higher at secondary. Persistent absence is still high, with rates highest among the most disadvantaged pupils. With winter just around the corner, likely bringing with it an increase in seasonal illnesses, it seems unlikely we’ll see a return to pre-pandemic norms by the end of this term.”

The analysis comes after a report published by the Children’s Commissioner for England (2023) revealed that 32% of year 10 and 11 students hit the threshold for persistent absence in 2021/21 and 2021/22 and that these young people received worse GCSE grades than peers who were rarely absent (36% passed at least five GCSEs, including English and maths compared to 78%).

And while 47% of non-disadvantaged persistent absentees achieved this GCSE benchmark, this figure falls to 28% for pupils eligible for free school meals.

Commenting, Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said: “The issues causing absence can be complex and beyond a school’s expertise or ability to solve. Mental health, for example, is something we know to be a significant barrier to school attendance. Timely support from specialist mental health professionals is required in these cases.

“Unfortunately, a decade of cuts to services has seen both mental health care and the teams that used to support schools with attendance decimated. Schools and parents are often left with nowhere to turn for help. Large parts of the country do not benefit from either the government’s attendance hubs, or its pilot mentoring programme for those pupils absent most often.

“This is not an issue schools can tackle alone. The government needs to redouble its efforts and commit the necessary resources to tackle the issue of severe absence.”