School leaders have welcomed plans to return to pre-pandemic grading standards while ensuring some safeguards for next summer’s exams.
However, there is concern about the problems GCSE and A level students may face should there be further Covid waves this winter and spring and subsequent disruption to teaching.
Furthermore, the government has launched a consultation over making the terminal examinations system more “resilient” in the face of problems such as Covid.
Summer 2023
Exams watchdog Ofqual has confirmed a number of safeguards for summer 2023. Notably, senior examiners will use the grades achieved by previous cohorts as well as prior attainment data to inform grade boundary decisions. This approach worked well in 2017 when it was employed to protect the first cohorts taking the reformed GCSE and A levels.
Elsewhere, there will be support with formulae and equation sheets in GCSE maths, physics, and combined science as there was this year. However, advance information will not be provided again.
Ofqual has launched a consultation on its plans for using formulae and equation sheets (2022a).
In an article outlining the approach for 2023, Ofqual chief regulator Dr Jo Sexton (2022) wrote: “We expect that overall results in 2023 will be much closer to pre-pandemic years than results since 2020. This decision means that results in 2023 will be lower than in 2022.
“At this point in the academic year, we can’t be precise about results in specific subjects and specifications. Entries have not yet been made and students have not taken any exams. But there is no pre-determined ‘quota’ of grades.”
Dr Sexton added that the 2023 cohort “will be protected in grading terms if their exam performance is a little lower than before the pandemic”.
“Broadly speaking, therefore, a typical student who would have achieved an A grade in their A level geography before the pandemic will be just as likely to get an A next summer, even if their performance in the assessments is a little weaker in 2023 than it would have been before the pandemic.”
The general approach has been welcomed and school leaders said they recognise that it is necessary to “return to normal”.
Julie McCulloch, director of policy at the Association of School and College Leaders, said the approach set out by Ofqual was a “sensible balance”.
She continued: “The pandemic caused a situation in which exams were not held for two years and were replaced with a different system of assessment that understandably resulted in different grades from normal.
“It would not be right for grading standards caused by highly unusual circumstances to become baked into the system, so we do need to return to normality. We’re pleased that some exam adaptations have also been retained in recognition of Covid disruption.”
Sarah Hannafin, senior policy advisor for the National Association of Head Teachers, echoed the sentiment: "The protection offered by the approach to grading next summer should create fairness for students at cohort level, although concerns will remain for individuals who have faced more disruption than others.”
However, Ms Hannafin warned that with a long winter ahead of us, we face the prospect of Covid disruption hampering exam preparations once again.
She added: "It is unsurprising that advance information will not form part of the support for students in 2023 – views on its usefulness were mixed. But it does mean that there is no support for students in advance of their exams next summer – the optionality in the small number of GCSE’s has been removed and the requirements for non-exam assessment, fieldwork and science practicals are fully reinstated.
“We have to hope that there is no resurgence of the disruption to attendance, teaching and learning over the winter which could create challenges in the face of those decisions.”
Making the system more resilient
The Department for Education (DfE) and Ofqual seem to have acknowledged the fragility of the terminal examination system and are now jointly consulting on proposed guidance for schools and colleges about gathering assessment evidence in order to “support resilience in the general qualifications system”.
The guidance would see schools and colleges gathering evidence “in a way that aligns with their normal arrangements for preparing students for exams, helping ensure preparedness should a scenario ever again arise where it would be unsafe or unfair for students to sit exams” (Ofqual & DfE, 2022).
Natalie Perera, chief executive of the Education Policy Institute, said this has to happen in a sustainable way: "Asking schools and colleges to collect consistent evidence about students' performance to guard against the impact of future disruptions is also sensible, but it must be implemented in a way that does not create additional burdens for schools and colleges, nor increase staff workload.
“Making the system more resilient is important, and the government must prioritise this by targeting resources at disadvantaged and vulnerable students."
While acknowledging that Ofqual’s approach for 2023 was the “most pragmatic approach” given that there is “no perfect option”, Ms Perera remains concerned about the impact on disadvantaged students, pointing to EPI’s on-going research showing that disadvantaged students and students in the North have experienced greater learning loss as a result of the pandemic.
She added: “Although their course of study for their qualifications may not have been affected by national closures, the years leading up to them (and providing the foundations for their courses) were significantly disrupted. While we acknowledge that these differences in learning loss cannot easily be corrected through the examination and grading process, it is crucial that sixth forms, colleges, universities, and employers consider this when making choices about admissions and employment.”
Despite the broad agreement on approach, school leaders would like to see a wider conversation about our approach to examination. Ms McCulloch added: “There is a discussion which needs to take place about the exam system, its over-reliance on students taking a huge number of end-of-course exams, and a grading cliff-edge in GCSE English and Maths which results in far too many 16-year-olds leaving secondary school without at least a Grade 4 ‘standard pass’. This requires longer-term consideration and planning.”
Preparing for 2023
Ofqual has already announced that pre-pandemic arrangements for non-exam assessment, fieldwork and practical science have been reinstated (Ofqual, 2022b). Meanwhile, the DfE has confirmed that schools and colleges this year will be teaching the full content of qualifications to students taking exams in 2023.
And arrangements for vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs) and other general qualifications were confirmed in May, with the watchdog saying that it does not expect any further adaptations to be used in VTQs. Awarding organisations are expected to take account of the approach, including to grading, used in general qualifications (Ofqual, 2022b).
Finally, the Joint Council for Qualifications is to consult on the exam timetable for next summer. JCQ wants to keep some of the space built into the exam timetable last year between the first and last exams in the same subject.
It was a welcome approach this year and JCQ thinks keeping this will reduce the chance of students missing all their exams in any one subject due to circumstances such as illness.
- Ofqual: Consultation: Proposed changes to the assessment of mathematics, physics, and combined science GCSEs in 2023 (closes October 20), September 2022a: https://bit.ly/3M8GZYW
- Ofqual: Guidance: Subject content and assessment arrangements in the academic year 2022 to 2023, May 2022: https://bit.ly/3N4QhEr
- Ofqual & DfE: Consultation: Ensuring the resilience of the qualifications system in 2023: GCSE, AS, A level, Project and AEA, September 2022: https://bit.ly/3M6pSXA
- Sexton: Grading exams and assessments in summer 2023 and autumn 2022, Ofqual, September 2022: https://bit.ly/3RKFEZG