An analysis published this week by the Education Policy Institute (Cruikshanks, 2024) shows that the total number of pupils in state-funded primary and secondary schools are projected to fall from a peak of 7.57 million in 2022/23 to 7.14 million in 2028/29 – a fall of 436,000.
It estimates that this will result in school funding in England falling from £42.7bn in 2024/25 to £41.6bn in 2029/30.
Primary schools are set to be the hardest hit, with total funding projected to fall by 5.6% between 2023/24 and 2029/30.
Over the same time period, funding for secondary schools will actually increase until 2026/27, before it also then begins to fall as the lower primary pupil numbers filter through.
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