The sixth annual Teacher Labour Market research (McLean et al, 2024) has warned government that “ambitious, radical and cost-effective policy options are urgently needed”.
The report, published by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) paints a now all-to-familiar picture:
- Recruitment to secondary initial teacher training reached only half of its target last year – 13,102 teachers recruited against a target of 26,360.
- ITT applications for 2024/25 are showing “slight improvement in some subjects” but it will not be enough to meet targets – the report predicts that 10 out of 17 subjects will under-recruit.
- Retention rates have fallen back to pre-pandemic levels.
- Working hours “increased significantly in 2022/23 driven in part by worsening pupil behaviour since the pandemic” – this finding is based on data from the Labour Force Survey and the government’s own Working lives of teachers and leaders research.
Recruitment and retention
The study bases its 2024/25 ITT recruitment projections on applications made up until February 2024. It predicts that recruitment this year will be around 61% of target.
Target trouble: Forecast of 2024/25 ITT recruitment vs target (source McLean et al, 2024)
The study finds that more generous bursaries are helping to improve the recruitment picture. Bursaries have increased in eight subjects this year and these subjects are predicted to see a 31% increase in recruits – compared to 3% in subjects where the bursary did not increase.
The report suggests that spending £100m on bursaries would have a similar impact to spending the same on early career payments. It adds: “A £5,000 bursary increase leads to 15% more ITT trainees and teachers teaching over the long term.”
The report comes after the news that the DfE has reduced its
ITT recruitment targets for 2024/25. The stated target of 33,355 trainee teachers is down by 6.1% across the board and of 9.1% at secondary level – to 23,955 (DfE, 2024).
The DfE’s forecast states: “This is driven by more favourable supply forecasts. For example, recruitment forecasts for both returners, and teachers that are new to the state-funded sector are more favourable for almost all subjects this year. In addition, while secondary pupil numbers are still growing, they are now growing more slowly; in advance of peaking around 2025/26. This has acted to reduce the rate at which the workforce needs to grow.”
However, Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said that the move will be regarded with “suspicion” as it looks like the government is trying to improve its recruitment figures, especially given that some of the reduced targets are in key shortage subjects such as physics and modern foreign languages.
He added: “Whatever the changes to targets, the fact remains that we have a critical shortage of teachers in our schools – and that the only real solution to this is for the government to improve pay and address the systemic pressures which drive workload pressures.”
When it comes to retention, the NFER report cites the latest School Workforce Census, which shows that following increased retention rates at the height of Covid, 9.7% of teachers quit in 2021/22 – similar to the rate in 2018/19 pre-pandemic. The study also warns that 36% of teachers said they were considering quitting the chalkface in 2022/23, compared to 25% in 2021/22 – a worrying increase in the space of just one year.
Workload and behaviour
The government’s Workforce Reduction Taskforce, set-up as part of the settlement with education unions in last year’s pay strikes, has a stated aim of reducing weekly workload by five hours in the next three years.
However, the NFER report finds that “little progress” has been made on workload with working hours rising. At secondary level teachers are working 51.4 and leaders 59.1 hours a week – both higher than in 2022.
The NFER says that student behaviour is driving higher workload, and that behaviour management and pastoral care should be areas of focus for the government.
The report adds: “More support from outside agencies for specific pupil needs such as SEND support, mental health and safeguarding are seen by teachers as key to further workload reduction.”
The report emphasises: “Workload is the main reason why teachers leave the profession.”
Teacher pay
The NFER says it is unlikely that last year’s 6.5% pay award, which was negotiated after significant teacher strike action, has “significantly improved the competitiveness of pay”.
It states: “Last year’s 6.5% pay rise stalled, but has not substantially reversed, the deterioration in the competitiveness in teacher pay since the pandemic, especially for experienced teachers.”
The report is concerned that teachers’ pay is not competitive when compared with other professions. Since 2010, the report says that “earnings in the wider UK labour market have followed a trajectory of stronger growth, deteriorating the competitiveness of teacher pay growth compared to other jobs”.
It calls for at least a 3.1% pay rise this September. It adds: “To help support adequate recruitment and retention, it is imperative that this year’s award continues to improve the competitiveness of teacher pay relative to other jobs.”
Commentary
Jack Worth, school workforce lead at the NFER and a co-author of the report: “Teacher supply is in a critical state that risks the quality of education that children and young people receive.
“The 2024 teacher pay award should exceed 3.1% – the latest forecast of the rise in average earnings next year – to narrow the gap between teacher pay and the wider labour market and improve recruitment and retention. This needs to be accompanied by a long-term strategy to improve the competitiveness of teacher pay while crucially ensuring schools have the funds to pay for it.
“Meanwhile workload, a key driver of retention, is rising just as the government is aiming to reduce working hours. Overall, these trends affirm that ambitious, radical and cost-effective policy options to address teacher recruitment and retention are urgently needed.”
Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Education Union: "Underpaid, overworked and under-supported teachers in under-resourced schools are facing unprecedented levels of challenge and many are voting with their feet and either leaving the profession or choosing not to enter it.
"This exodus from the profession will not be solved without fully funded above-inflation pay increases to reverse the real-term pay cuts since 2010. Unless we improve teachers’ work/life balance we won’t make the profession an appealing one to enter and stay in. And we won’t do that unless we tackle teachers’ sky-high workload.
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders: “The reality borne out by this bleak report is that, on average, teachers work longer hours for less money than graduates in other jobs. It is very difficult to see how the recruitment and retention crisis can be solved under these circumstances.
“The erosion of external support services is piling more pressure on to teachers and school leaders. This has only worsened since the pandemic with additional challenges around behaviour and attendance and an increasing number of pupils who either have unmet SEN or are unable to access mental health support. The workload pressures that this is causing in schools are not something that can be alleviated by tinkering with the system but require sustained investment in public services.”
- DfE: Academic year 2024/25: Postgraduate initial teacher training targets, 2024: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/postgraduate-initial-teacher-training-targets
- McLean, Worth & Smith: Teacher labour market in England: Annual report, NFER, 2024: www.nfer.ac.uk/publications/teacher-labour-market-in-england-annual-report-2024